The North Carolina economy is projected to grow by 1.7 percent, according to our very own Dr. John Connaughton in the economics department. His predictions for our economy’s growth excited many individuals, simply because it was good news to hear after such a long barrage of economic mishaps.
Don’t let the numbers fool you, though. Connaughton points out that this is lower than the growth rate in 2007; it was 2.4 percent. In the third and fourth quarters of this fiscal year, our economy should see some improvement, more so than the first and second quarters of this year.
Connaughton gives credit where it is due. The government’s economic stimulus program has actually helped our economy’s Gross Domestic Product; however, he mentions, “many households did not receive their checks until [later]” so the effects from the economic stimulus package will flow over to the third quarter.
He accounts for the events in the financial market by saying, “[they] may postpone this rebound [for the economy] for a quarter.”
In total, for North Carolina, Connaughton expects four of the 11 sectors to see “strong” growth in 2008, with the service industry having the largest projected growth at 5 percent. Government operations in North Carolina are proposed to have a 4.3 percent increase in output, wholesale trade is expected to grow by 4.7 percent, and transportation – which includes warehousing, utilities and information – will grow by 2.2 percent.
We arrive at the other side of the balanced equation: those areas expected to decline. Agriculture, construction and durable goods manufacturing all have projected losses in their output for this year.
With regards to employment, North Carolina is projected to add 23,920 net jobs. This increase is representative of a 0.6 percent increase over the numbers in December 2007. The unemployment rate for North Carolina spiked to 6.6 percent in July 2008, trumping the 5.7 percent unemployment rate average nationwide. Regardless of the alarmingly high unemployment rate, Connaughton expects for North Carolina to be stable for the remainder of the 2008 fiscal year.
The service industry will claim the largest portion of employment increases, with 2.1 percent projected growth; this bodes well for us college students, at least while we are still in college. Retail stores will increase staff by an estimated 1.7 percent and the finance – this includes insurance and real estate – will grow by 1.5 percent.
Looking ahead, in 2009 we can expect to see a continuation in North Carolina’s eight-year streak of economic expansion. In 2009 it is projected that North Carolina will continue to build upon its foundation and rise 2.5 percent in GDP from what was realized in 2008. Connaughton expects to see growth statewide in 2009 for all four quarters of business and economic activity.
For those seeking jobs in 2009, Connaughton estimates that North Carolina will see an additional 51,200 net jobs, or an increase by 1.2 percent. Again we have the service industry gaining the largest portion of new hires at a projected rate of 3.9 percent growth. He says, “With the turnaround in the economy expected during the second half of 2008, we should see a continued upswing in economic activity in 2009.”
There you have it. North Carolina is the place to be if you are a job seeker, at least from this economic outlook and by these projections, times should get better for us all.
